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KMID : 1024520110200121541
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
2011 Volume.20 No. 12 p.1541 ~ p.1551
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Uncertainty Analysis of Parameters of Spatial Statistical Model Using Bayesian Method for Estimating Spatial Distribution of Probability Rainfall
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Seo Young-Min
Park Ki-Bum
Kim Sung-Won
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Abstract
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This study applied the Bayesian method for the quantification of the parameter uncertainty of spatial linear mixed model in the estimation of the spatial distribution of probability rainfall. In the application of Bayesian method, the prior sensitivity analysis was implemented by using the priors normally selected in the existing studies which applied the Bayesian method for the puppose of assessing the influence which the selection of the priors of model parameters had on posteriors. As a result, the posteriors of parameters were differently estimated which priors were selected, and then in the case of the prior combination, F-S-E, the sizes of uncertainty intervals were minimum and the modes, means and medians of the posteriors were similar to the estimates using the existing classical methods. From the comparitive analysis between Bayesian and plug-in spatial predictions, we could find that the uncertainty of plug-in prediction could be slightly underestimated than that of Bayesian prediction
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KEYWORD
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Probability rainfall, Spatial distribution, Parameter uncertainty, Spatial linear mixed model, Bayesian inference
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